November 2, 1999 1999 NCAA Tournament Countdown Begins..... With the announcement of the 1999 NCAA Tournament field just days away, teams are positioning themselves for one of 48 berths in this year's Championship. Of the 48 spots, 22 are reserved for automatic qualification for Conference Champions while 2 others will be filled by Play-In winners from four other Conference Champions. That leaves 24 slots for at-large bids and will leave several strong teams with no possible shot at a College Cup appearance in San Jose. Although the last week of the season includes some pivotal games and marks the start of conference tournaments, Soccer Buzz takes a stab at guessing the likely choices of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee based on its criteria including record and strength of schedule while keeping in mind the historical trend of their selection process. ACC Probable NCAA Bids: 5-6 Locks, Best Bets: North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia Sudden Death Hopefuls: Maryland, Duke The Buzz: The top four teams are staring at possible high seeds. Maryland finished strong and placed second in league play with one of the toughest non-conference schedules in Division 1. With a guaranteed .500 or better record, the Terps should return to NCAAs. Duke has a loud argument for a sixth ACC bid with quality wins over 4 Top 25 opponents, including Penn State. America East Probable NCAA Bids: 1 Locks, Best Bets: Hartford Sudden Death Hopefuls: None The Buzz: Hartford, despite slipping out of the Top 25, can still earn a solid seed in NCAA play if they capture the America East crown. Boston University has had a strong season but will likely need to earn the automatic bid to get to the NCAAs. Atlantic 10 Probable NCAA Bids: 1 Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: Dayton, Massachusetts The Buzz: Both Dayton and UMass deserve a solid look from the NCAA committee. However, the A10 doesn't have the power ratings to get two bids. The Tourney champ will get the one sure bid with the loser (if it is Dayton or UMass) being a long-shot for an at-large invite. Both teams failed to earn any Top 25 victories as both had just one ranked foe on their schedules (UMass lost to UConn and Dayton lost to Kentucky.) Big 10 Probable NCAA Bids: 4-5 Locks, Best Bets: Penn State, Michigan, Minnesota Sudden Death Hopefuls: Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin The Buzz: The Big 10 was down a notch this year and will cause headaches for the Selection Committee. Minnesota should get in with the best schedule behind Penn State and Michigan. The Gophers need only get to the Big 10 Semifinals to feel good about their NCAA chances. Iowa's third place finish might keep the bid list at four from the Big 10 as the Hawkeyes lost to other NCAA Bubble teams (St Louis, Furman and Iowa State). Iowa doesn't have the national power ranking of others teams and might need a strong Big 10 Tourney showing to qualify. Wisconsin has really clouded up the Big 10 picture with a bad losing conference record to finish eighth but owns a decent non-league schedule and mark. Ohio State could be the odd team out unless they fare better than Minnesota and Wisconsin in the league tourney. Big 12 Probable NCAA Bids: 4-5 Locks, Best Bets: Nebraska, Texas A&M, Missouri, Baylor Sudden Death Hopefuls: Iowa State, Colorado The Buzz: Missouri and Baylor should be in as they have both been in the Top 30 all season. Iowa State started strong and has been up-and-down since the first half of the season. Colorado's losses are numerous but have come against a much improved schedule that could impress the Selection Committee. Iowa State could be helped by their two victories over Big 10 teams, Minnesota and Iowa, as well as two victories over SEC teams, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Colorado failed to score impressive non-league wins but did play Duke and UNC on a beefed up schedule. If either the Cyclones or the Buffs get to at least the Conference Tourney semis, they could surprise with the conference's fifth bid. Big East Probable NCAA Bids: 3-4 Locks, Best Bets: Notre Dame, Connecticut Sudden Death Hopefuls: Boston College, Syracuse, Seton Hall The Buzz: The increasingly tough Big East will likely get four bids again so BC and Syracuse should have little to sweat over. Long shots are Villanova and Seton Hall. BC had good early season wins over James Madison, Fairfield and Dartmouth that should impress. Syracuse could be hurt by the loss to another bubble team, Boston University, but did defeat Dartmouth and BC head-to-head. The Hall played a tougher schedule that included four losses to Top 10 teams and Coach Kempf has one of the premier players in the nation in Kelly Smith. If they earn a couple of upsets in the Big East tourney, they could find themselves in the thick of things again although the late season loss to Princeton may have done them in since the Tigers have positioned themselves for strong consideration. Villanova has no power wins to really make enough noise. Miami is a year away despite a strong year. Big Sky Probable NCAA Bids: 1 Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: None The Buzz: Montana has the inside edge for the automatic Big Sky berth. But don't count Weber State out despite a losing overall record and a surprising Idaho State team could wreck everyone's plans. The Grizzlies turned it on by winning 6 of their last 7 including a 3-0 victory over Weber State. If Weber State takes the Big Sky title, they will enter NCAA play with a losing record. Big South Probable NCAA Bids: (1) Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: None The Buzz: The Big South champion will face the Northeast champion in a play-in game. Other than winning that playoff, no team from the Big South is a threat for NCAA play. Radford went undefeated in regular season play and should be the favorite to face the Northeast entry but Division 1 newcomer Elon gave the Highlanders a run for their money in the regular season finale. Howard, despite a 4-11 mark, has been the surprise of the conference and battled Radford to a 1-0 OT loss early in the season before Coach Street got the Bison on a three match win streak to end the regular season. Big West Probable NCAA Bids: 1 Locks, Best Bets: Cal Poly Sudden Death Hopefuls: North Texas The Buzz: Cal Poly has captured the Big West bid with an 8-1 league mark. The Mustangs suffered six losses to Top 25 teams and have still to face a surprise St Mary's squad. Cal Poly could be a First Round headache in the NCAAs. North Texas, despite a sparkling record and a recent entry into the regional rankings, is a long shot for an at-large bid as the Eagles played just one ranked foe. Colonial Probable NCAA Bids: 2 Locks, Best Bets: William & Mary, James Madison Sudden Death Hopefuls: East Carolina, Richmond The Buzz: The CAA's usual top heavy powers have dwindled as the rest of the conference has gotten more competitive. East Carolina has had the best year in school history but would likely need a tremendous showing in the CAA Tourney to even be considered. Except for a loss to Wake Forest, the Pirates played a relatively weak non-conference schedule in posting 11 regular season victories. Richmond has a win over Clemson and a tie against Hartford to help their cause. The Spiders could get back into the NCAA picture if they get to the CAA final. Conference USA Probable NCAA Bids: 1 Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: St Louis, UNC Charlotte, Houston, Marquette The Buzz: There's a dogfight in store for a league sure to get a deeper look in 1999. UNC Charlotte's First Round victory last year brought credibility to the league and five teams have been regionally ranked this season. St Louis is having the best finish while UNC Charlotte destructed near the end. Marquette and Houston have great shots at capturing the C-USA Tourney and will likely get an NCAA invitation by securing a championship. St Louis enters the conference tourney with the nation's second longest win streak and could get an at-large bid if they lose a close final. Independents Probable NCAA Bids: 0 Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: None The Buzz: South Alabama and Colorado College are the only Independents with decent records. USA plays one of the softest schedules in Division 1 which rules them out. Colorado College played a better schedule but isn't even in the Top 10 in the region. No Independents will join the dance this year. Ivy Probable NCAA Bids: 2-3 Locks, Best Bets: Harvard Sudden Death Hopefuls: Pennsylvania, Dartmouth, Princeton The Buzz: Hartford has helped its Ivy sisters by working its way back into the Top 10 and raising the league power rating. Pennsylvania has been knocking on the door for some time now and this could be the year if they finish behind Harvard in the Ivy race. Dartmouth has turned it on of late and has played the toughest schedule along with Harvard. Princeton is surprisingly one of the best teams in the nation. Penn had a great win against Maryland and might be playing for an NCAA bid in the season finale against Princeton. Dartmouth has climbed back near the nation's Top 25 rankings, but has failed to earn a win over a ranked foe and also lost head to head matches against Princeton and Pennsylvania. Dartmouth's power rating could oddly get them back to the tourney but the second entry should really come down to the winner of the Princeton/Pennsylvania season finale. MAAC Probable NCAA Bids: 1 Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: Fairfield, Loyola MD The Buzz: Either Fairfield or Loyola should grab the MAAC's automatic berth. Fairfield had an excellent First Round game against Maryland in 1998 but hasn't climbed in the regional rankings enough to garner an at-large berth. If they lose the MAAC title, they likely lose their only shot into the NCAAs. These two teams tied in the regular season and if they make it to the MAAC Finals, this could be an all-out war for this year's NCAA berth. Mid-American Probable NCAA Bids: 1 Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, Miami OH The Buzz: These four teams have battled it out all season. Any of these four could claim the MAC title and the automatic bid that goes with it. Despite a strong season by all four programs, a conference title is the only way into the NCAA field. Central Michigan has come far very fast and has probably been the biggest surprise. Buffalo went undefeated through much of the season but has faltered near the end. Eastern Michigan and Miami have been the most consistent. Best bet is Eastern Michigan as the Eagles defeated the other top three MAC teams in shutouts although they have been surprised by lesser league foes. Mid-Continent Probable NCAA Bids: 0 Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: None The Buzz: No automatic berth, no at-large candidate. Oakland has had an incredible season in their first eligible year of Division 1 play but the weak Mid-Continent will not help their cause for at-large consideration. Midwestern Probable NCAA Bids: 1 Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: UW-Milwaukee The Buzz: UW-Milwaukee continues to be one of the highly regarded teams in the Great Lakes Region despite a so-so record and mid-league finish. But the team to watch here is probably Butler who has finished strong despite a losing record. Wright State pulled off the shocker of the year last year when they claimed the MCC crown and could be an even stronger candidate this season after finishing near the top in the regular season. Wright State won 7 of their last 8 including a win over Butler to earn a co-championship. The MCC Tourney is always crazy so the automatic berth is a toss-up. Butler's tough schedule could have prepared them the best. Missouri Valley Probable NCAA Bids: 1 Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: Illinois State The Buzz: The best chance for Illinois State is to win the league title. Despite a strong season, they've earned little respect nationally. The Redbirds went unbeaten in their first 13 games. Evansville has a strong tradition and could waltz into the NCAAs with a losing record by capturing the conference title. These two teams tied early in the season and could be headed for a Tourney showdown. Mountain West Probable NCAA Bids: 2 Locks, Best Bets: BYU Sudden Death Hopefuls: San Diego State, Utah The Buzz: As well as BYU and San Diego State played in 1998, it would be hard to imagine either of them being left out of this year's field. SDSU must finish well and needs to get to the tourney championship to sway any doubters as the Aztecs have just the Top 25 victory over BYU to go along with three losses to ranked opponents. Utah is dangerous as they quietly earned a share of the regular season title and could be a team to watch. It's very possible the newly formed Mountain West could get three bids but the odds are slim. Utah's final regular season game and subsequent loss to Long Beach State put the Utes in a must win situation in the MWC Tourney. Northeast Probable NCAA Bids: (1) Locks, Best Bets: Long Island Sudden Death Hopefuls: None The Buzz: Long Island came away with the Northeast crown and play-in berth in just its third year of soccer. The Blackbirds, seeded 4th, upset #1 CCSU and #3 Quinnipiac to enter the NCAA Play-In game on a five game win streak. Ohio Valley Probable NCAA Bids: 0 Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: None The Buzz: No automatic berth, no at-large candidates. Eastern Illinois captured the regular season title and will be heavy favorites for the OVC Tournament crown but will not be in the running this year for an NCAA ticket. PAC 10 Probable NCAA Bids: 4-5 Locks, Best Bets: Stanford, UCLA, USC Sudden Death Hopefuls: California, Arizona State, Washington The Buzz: The top three are possibly all among the nation's Top 20 teams. That kind of power at the top should help the PAC 10 get at least one more team into the NCAAs. California has played the next best schedule but both Washington and Arizona State may finish up strongest. If Washington can squeeze out another .500 record or better, they could climb into the picture as they always seem to do because of their tough schedule. A husky win over either Stanford or California the last weekend of play would give Washington a Top 3 league mark and possibly the fourth NCAA bid for the PAC10. California has three Top 25 victories along with four Top 25 losses and would be in a great position if they sweep the state of Washington the last weekend. Arizona State is likely the odd team out even with two more victories the last week. The Sun Devils will likely finish no better than sixth b ut do have a win over Michigan along with four losses to ranked teams. Patriot Probable NCAA Bids: 1 Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: Colgate, Navy The Buzz: Only one team will get in from the Patriot and Navy and Colgate should fight it out one more time for that position. SEC Probable NCAA Bids: 4 Locks, Best Bets: Florida, Kentucky Sudden Death Hopefuls: South Carolina, Georgia The Buzz: Given the defending national champion comes from the SEC and Kentucky moving close to the Top 10, the SEC will surely get at least 3 bids. That makes South Carolina, despite another year of a weak schedule, a virtual lock. The Gamecocks have 14 regular season victories over teams mostly around the Top 150. Georgia started strong, crashed a bit, and has finished well to likely put themselves in a position to get a fourth bid from the SEC. The darkhorse here is Vanderbilt. The Commodores could surprise a few by winning their last few games and going deep in the SEC tourney to finish above .500. Given their tough schedule (8 ranked oppoenents) and turnaround during the second half of the season, Vandy could find themselves back in the NCAA Tourney. Southern Probable NCAA Bids: 1 Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: Furman The Buzz: Furman is a long shot for an at-large bid and losing in the Southern Championship would hurt their chances. However, they stand the best chance to capture the league crown as they finished the regular season undefeated in the conference. Furman does own two victories over other bubble teams (Princeton and Iowa). Look for surprising Davidson and traditional power UNC Greensboro to be the biggest obstacles for the Paladins. Southland Probable NCAA Bids: (1) Locks, Best Bets: SW Texas State Sudden Death Hopefuls: None The Buzz: SW Texas State could do something only a couple of other NCAA teams have done---qualify for the NCAA Champsionship their inaugural season. The Bobcats have taken the first step by qualify for a Play-In game against the TAAC Champion after winning the Southland Tournament. This is the first season the Southland is eligible for an NCAA berth. TAAC Probable NCAA Bids: (1) Locks, Best Bets: None Sudden Death Hopefuls: None The Buzz: Central Florida and Georgia State should battle it out for a chance to play the Southland Champ for a berth in the NCAA Tourney. The Golden Knights won 2-0 in a mid-season contest against Georgia State and slipped only against Jacksonville State in a scoreless tie. Jacksonville State could be a darkhorse as their only losses this season were against TAAC competition while Jacksonville also has enough talent to be a threat. WAC Probable NCAA Bids: 2 Locks, Best Bets: Fresno State, SMU Sudden Death Hopefuls: SMU The Buzz: Fresno has had a solid enough season to make the field. The same is true for SMU but they need to play well during the WAC Tourney. Fresno's three wins over likely NCAA Qualiers (Cal Poly, James Madison and USC) should get the Bulldogs an invitation. SMU also has three wins over NCAA Qualifiers (Notre Dame, Baylor and Minnesota). Hawaii and San Jose State could be spoilers as both have quietly turned in outstanding seasons and could knock SMU or Fresno out of an NCAA bid if either of them capture the league title. West Coast Probable NCAA Bids: 2-4 Locks, Best Bets: Santa Clara, San Diego Sudden Death Hopefuls: Loyola Marymount, Portland, St Mary's The Buzz: San Diego has earned its bid already. Having the #1 ranked team all season as well as one of the best power ratings, the WCC could get four teams in this year. Portland's strong tradition and tough schedule might earn the Pilots a bid despite no national ranking this season. Portland and LMU could be playing for a final WCC bid in their season finale on 11/7. Loyola has proven they belong among the nation's best. St Mary's is the odd team out here despite an excellent record. The Gaels have a great record but no standout wins unless they tally against Cal Poly and San Diego the last weekend of the season.